Coping to the global economic growth trap, G20 role is important
On 虹口油压店 September 4-5, 2016, the 11th G20 summit will be held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and the leaders of 20 major leaders and some invited important economies will gather the annual topics of global economic governance. This is the first top design meeting in China, which is the first to host the global economic governance, and the first time the G20 Summit has two consecutive years from NETT sincerity, and it is important for the continuation of international economic financial system reform measures.
Since China, China has been admitted to the National Chairman of the G20, China has been in four "I" themes, ie "Innovative, Innovative, Innovatic, Interconnected, Inclusive" World Economy " The topic of the Turkish Antalya Summit 3 "I", an inclusiveness (IMPLEMentation) and investment growth (InvestmentForgrowth).
However, 上海水磨论坛 European and American public opinion has always had a lot of voices that question G20 importance.
Therefore, in China, the majority of emerging economies and many people who have the reform of the international economic finance system must further emphasize that today’s global economy is facing new growth traps today, G20 is becoming like 2008 The international financial crisis is as important as the outbreak of the international financial crisis.
G20 countries need to further unite, establish long-term governance mechanisms, address new growth traps in the current global economy. The reasons for the author are as follows: First, the continued downturn of global economic growth is seriously impacting the well-being of various countries. For a few months, major agencies have lowered the expectations of global economic growth, and generally believe that global economic growth is expected to be below 2016.
This will follow the global growth in 2015, the global growth rate is less than 3% in the second consecutive year. You know, in 2008-2014, the world’s actual GDP growth rate is%. If so, at the Australian Brisbane G20 Leaders Summit, the global growth target proposed by the G20 country, that is, the end of 2018 "increases the global economic volume to increase 2% on the ‘existing expected track’" Empty.
Because of the calculation, it is necessary to complete this goal, and the global economy needs to reach the average growth rate in 2015-2018. The economic recovery of developed countries such as the United States and Europe.
In mid-April 2016, IMF also lowered the 2016 US economic growth rate to%; 2016 The Eurozone economic growth rate is reduced by% to%, and the Japanese economic growth rate is expedited from 1% to 1%. %.
Second, the continuous expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike is becoming the "Sword of Dhakeley" on the global economic re-balance, and the world economy continues to have potential threats.
In October 2014, the Fed announced that it completely exited the quantitative loose monetary policy. Since then, the Fed’s interest rate hike is gradually formed, which has become a "Sword of Dhakeley" on the global economic re-balance, which has a potential threat to the G20 policy coordination.
Especially since August 2015, the guessing of the US Federation raising interest rates have been rampant, causing a large global financial market, a large number of arbitrage capital efforts from emerging market countries, excessive excessive fluctuations and disorderly adjustments in many countries, seriously affecting regional and global economic finance stability.
On December 17, 2015, the Fed announced to open a rate hike process and decided to increase the federal reference interest rate.
Despite 2016, the Fed has repeatedly "desire to stop" on the raising movement, but the expectation of the US dollar interest rate hike is still continuous, the significant impact of the international commodity market, the international foreign exchange market, and the international capital market has increased The complexity and difficulty of G20 policy coordination. Third, the main currency depreciates the overall depreciation of the US dollar, and the exchange rate fluctuates sharply.
Since the US Fed, the US Fed exited, the US dollar index has rendered the trend, and the emerging market currency index fell sharply. In 2015, it was mainly affected by the US Fed raising interest rate hike. The global foreign exchange market showed a dollar, and other major currencies were depreciated, and the exchange rate fluctuated significantly. With the recovery of the US economy, the Fed continues to appreciate is expected to be more strong in the future, and the US dollar will remain strong, and the exchange rate is inevitable.
Short-term arbitrage capital exits a lot, and the foreign exchange reserve is significantly reduced.
According to IMF data, there are a total of trillion US dollars from developed countries from developed countries in 2009-2012. Recently, the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to produce completely opposite effects, and short-term arbitrage capital has exported to emerging market countries. The most direct reflection is that its foreign exchange reserves have shrunk. The foreign exchange reserves of emerging markets have declined rapidly, and the fluidity risk is increased. Assessment, the price of assets has declines with the fluidity tightening, and the vulnerability of its financial system is added, and the possibility of financial turmoil is increased.
Fourth, the global trade protectionism looks up, and the economic growth engine is weakened. According to WTO data, the total amount of global trade in 2015 will fall nearly 14% year-on-year. In 2016, global trade volume increases will be around%, and will remain below the average of 5% over the past 20 years.
This is largely due to the big commodity prices due to the expectation of the US dollar, especially the price of crude oil prices. At the same time, some developed countries adopt trade protectionism policies, even active currency depreciation in order to maintain export competitive advantages. However, in the case of the global economic loss, a country took the lead in carrying out currency depreciation, which may cause competitive currency depreciation, thus making its advantage quickly eliminating.
The significant decline in global trade not only increased trade protection and currency competition risks, but also covered a shadow for the global economic recovery.
In short, the nature of the second 10 years of the 21st century is the "new growth trap" of the global economy, including the "old age" of the main economies, global wealth distribution "new gap" problem, global technology innovation "Try", geopolitical risks, etc. In 2008, due to the "financial tsunami" strikes, all countries in the world face the threats brought by the global financial crisis. Under the driving needs of the real development of the world economy, developed and emerging countries have held the first 20th National Group (G20) Leaders Summit in Washington, USA in 2008 in 2008, and the G20 mechanism came to life. The primary forum of the global economic cooperation. G20 strengthened the coordination of macroeconomic policies with sincere cooperation, and resolved the short-term risks brought about the global financial crisis, forming a global economic growth.
However, since the eight years, it is worth vigilance that the difference in economic trend and policy orientation in major countries has become increasingly larger, and the G20 macroeconomic policy coordinated further increases.
The US economy presents a recovery situation, slowly press the "tightening" button; the euro zone, Japan is a stimulating economy, which needs to maintain extremely loose monetary policy. This seriously differentiated economic situation and monetary policy orientation have triggered the dramatic shock of the international financial market. The global economy is facing 杨浦洗浴中心 an imbalance risk, and even thoroughly caught in the growth. In short, G20 members account for more than 80% of the global economy, and the responsibility of the world economic growth has difficult to shine. It is necessary to strengthen the communication and coordination of macroeconomic policies, form policy and action, prevent negative spillover effects, maintain financial market stability, and promote Investment and consumption, rinse the world economy growth. In 2016, it is a crucial year in this process.
(The author is the executive dean of the Chongyang Finance Research Institute of China, the recent books include "2016: G20 and China", "American anxiety".) (Editor: Yuan Bo, Yang Mu) Sharing let more people see.